Viitorul vine, și e un algoritm plus A/B testing

O să pun chestia asta aici, în mare parte pentru că o vedem de ani de zile, în fiecare zi și totuși clienții nu o înțeleg. Darămite oamenii de rând care habar n-au unde sunt datele lor, ce fac, cum funcționează internetul și probabil nici nu se întreabă cum ajung paginile de internet la ei, nevermind anything else.

Ne luptăm nu numai cu posturi TV la care oamenii stau cu ochii toată ziua și înghit prostiile pe care le debitează ca apoi să le regurgiteze, ci și cu asta:

“My children will certainly never, ever understand this concept of mass communication.” Up to now, explains Nix, election campaigns have been organized based on demographic concepts. “A really ridiculous idea. The idea that all women should receive the same message because of their gender—or all African Americans because of their race.” What Nix meant is that while other campaigners so far have relied on demographics, Cambridge Analytica was using psychometrics.

“At Cambridge,” he said, “we were able to form a model to predict the personality of every single adult in the United States of America.” The hall is captivated. According to Nix, the success of Cambridge Analytica’s marketing is based on a combination of three elements: behavioral science using the OCEAN Model, Big Data analysis, and ad targeting. Ad targeting is personalized advertising, aligned as accurately as possible to the personality of an individual consumer.

“Pretty much every message was data-driven,” Alexander Nix remembers. On the day of the third presidential debate between Trump and Clinton, Trump’s team tested 175,000 different ad variations for his arguments, in order to find the right versions above all via Facebook. The messages differed for the most part only in microscopic details, in order to target the recipients in the optimal psychological way: different headings, colors, captions, with a photo or video. This fine-tuning reaches all the way down to the smallest groups, Nix explained in an interview with us. “We can address villages or apartment blocks in a targeted way. Even individuals.”

The Data that Turned the World Upside Down 

Reclamele Facebook funcționează

La categoria constatare / uimire:

“The North American ARPU has exploded in the five years since Facebook had its IPO. In the fourth quarter of 2012, Facebook’s average revenue per user in the US and Canada was just $4.08. Facebook generated $62.23 per US and Canadian user in 2016, compared to just $13.58 in all of 2012. In other words, Facebook has figured out how to ring up an additional $50 per year from every North American user since its IPO. Not bad.

Facebook now has 231 million monthly users in the US and Canada, the regions that advertisers are most interested in reaching thanks to the relatively affluent nature of those people.”

via BI

Viața de zi cu zi a celor care au votat Trump

Ca mulți alți oameni mă gândeam la ce s-a întâmplat la alegerile din SUA:

Mă uitam de curiozitate la oameni și cum au votat în funcție de mediul urban vs.rural, stat, venituri, etnie, etc.

Am căutat cifrele de la recensământul din 2010 ca să îmi fac o idee. Am afla că distribuția urban vs. rural în SUA e mult mai pronunțată ca în alte țări (inclusiv UK):

  • 80.7% urban (aprox. 250m oameni)
  • 19.3% rural (aprox. 60m oameni).

Cele mai mari zece orașe sunt, în ordine descrescătoare, New York (cu 8.550.405 locuitori), Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Philadelphia, Phoenix, San Antoni, San Diego, Dallas și San Jose (cu 1.026.908 locuitori). Sunt doar zece orașe în SUA cu peste 1 milion de locuitori.

Dar restul oamenilor?

Dacă 80% sau aproape 250m sunt în mediul urban, cât de mari sunt orașele și cât de multe sunt de fapt? Am găsit o aproximație aici pe Statista:

US cities by size

 

Sunt cam 16.470 de „așezări” cu o populație sub 10.000 de oameni. La cât de mare e țara, nici nu vreau să mă gândesc la cât de întinse sunt așezările astea și care e densitatea. Cum ar putea să arate? O biserică, un mall, un fast food, niște școli și primării și mai ce? E posibil ca la vreo câteva zeci sau sute de kilometri mai e o așezare aproape identică.

Cum zicea David Wong pe Cracked.com:

If you don’t live in one of these small towns, you can’t understand the hopelessness. Blue islands in an ocean of red. The cities are less than 4 percent of the land mass, but 62 percent of the population and easily 99 percent of the popular culture. Our movies, shows, songs, and news all radiate out from those blue islands.

And if you live in the red, that fucking sucks.

The cities are always living in the future. I remember when our little town got our first Chinese restaurant and, 20 years later, its first fancy coffee shop. All of this stuff had turned up in movies (set in L.A., of course) decades earlier.

Step outside of the city, and the suicide rate among young people fucking doubles. The recession pounded rural communities, but all the recovery went to the cities. The rate of new businesses opening in rural areas has utterly collapsed.

See, rural jobs used to be based around one big local business — a factory, a coal mine, etc. When it dies, the town dies. Where I grew up, it was an oil refinery closing that did us in. I was raised in the hollowed-out shell of what the town had once been. The roof of our high school leaked when it rained. Cities can make up for the loss of manufacturing jobs with service jobs — small towns cannot. That model doesn’t work below a certain population density.”

 

Mă uitasem de curiozitate să văd ce orașe din România au în jur de 10.000 de oameni. Enciclopedia internet zice Slobozia, Mediaș și restul.

Cum o fi să te uiți pe Facebook la ce dă share primarul localității tale

Joshua Benton de la Nieman Lab:

„I’m from a small town in south Louisiana. The day before the election, I looked at the Facebook page of the current mayor. Among the items he posted there in the final 48 hours of the campaign: Hillary Clinton Calling for Civil War If Trump Is Elected. Pope Francis Shocks World, Endorses Donald Trump for President. Barack Obama Admits He Was Born in Kenya. FBI Agent Who Was Suspected Of Leaking Hillary’s Corruption Is Dead.

These are not legit anti-Hillary stories. (There were plenty of those, to be sure, both on his page and in this election cycle.) These are imaginary, made up, frauds. There were just too many people voting in this election because they were infuriated by made-up things they read online.”

Nu zic că am prevăzut rezultatul ăsta neapărat, dar acum am senzația că l-am înțeles un pic mai bine, atât în Statele Unite cât și an alte locuri. Oamenii și știrile se schimbă, mecanismul e același.

N-am vizitat orașele alea dar acum știu de ce alcoolul, heroina, OxyContin și Trump sunt atât de populare.